As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Sunday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers’ success at the two road courses, Infineon and Watkins Glen, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing. I also factor in key driver stats from their most recent runs at the road courses.
TOP TWENTY-FIVE
1)
14Tony Stewart
2)42Juan Pablo Montoya
3)48Jimmie Johnson
4)11Denny Hamlin
5)24Jeff Gordon
6)18Kyle Busch
7)99Carl Edwards
8)83Brian Vickers
9)39Ryan Newman
10)47Marcos Ambrose
11)33Clint Bowyer
12)9Kasey Kahne
13)2Kurt Busch
14)29Kevin Harvick
15)16Greg Biffle
16)17Matt Kenseth
17)5Mark Martin
18)44A.J. Allmendinger
19)19Elliott Sadler
20)26Jamie McMurray
21)31Jeff Burton
22)1Martin Truex Jr.
23)09Ron Fellows
24)7Robby Gordon
25)20Joey Logano
With a trip to historic Watkins Glen International next on the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series schedule, plenty of talk will center on the road-course “experts” who annually challenge the NASCAR regulars on the 2.45-mile circuit. Ron Fellows, Boris Said, Max Papis, Patrick Carpentier, P.J. Jones, Brian Simo and Andy Lally all will be challenging for the win.
Yet to find the most successful drivers at The Glen, look no farther than two of the top three drivers in the series standings. Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon share the lead in victories at the circuit with four apiece. Gordon won his four races over a five-year span. He won his first of three consecutive triumphs in 1997, and added a victory in 2001. He has six top-five finishes at The Glen, eight top 10s and two poles. He’s led nine of 16 races for 227 laps.
Stewart scored his first Watkins Glen victory in 2002, winning four times in six years (2004-05 and 2007). He has six top fives and eight top 10s, with an average finish of 5.7. Stewart led six of 10 races for 191 laps, and placed second in last year’s race, 2.275 seconds behind Kyle Busch.
In addition to his victories at Watkins Glen, Stewart also won twice at the other road course on the Sprint Cup Series schedule, Infineon Raceway, in addition to finishing second there in June following an exciting battle with Kasey Kahne. “While both road courses, the two tracks are still pretty different,” Stewart said. “At Watkins Glen, you don’t have to finesse the throttle near as much as you do at Sonoma. When you get the car turned, you can get in the gas and then stay in the gas. Watkins Glen is much faster than Sonoma. I think there are the same amount of passing opportunities, but because of the speeds that you’re able to run at The Glen, brakes become a much bigger factor than I think they are at Sonoma. It’s pretty much a horsepower track.”
SELECTED WATKINS GLEN DRIVER STATS
Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
• Four wins, six top fives, eight top 10s
• Average finish of 5.7
• Series-best Average Running Position of 3.6
• Series-best Driver Rating of 134.0
• Series-high 84 Fastest Laps Run
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 119.458 mph
• Series-high 350 Laps in the Top 15 (96.7%)
• 107 Quality Passes, second-most
Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 42 Target Chevrolet)
• One top five, one top 10
• Average finish of 21.5
• Average Running Position of 11.8, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 97.7, sixth-best
• 13 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 118.689 mph, second-fastest
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet)
• Three top fives, four top 10s
• Average finish of 13.1
• Average Running Position of 7.7, second-best
• Driver Rating of 106.8, second-best
• 9 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 118.606 mph, third-fastest
• 320 Laps in the Top 15 (88.4%), second-most
• 74 Quality Passes, 13th-most
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
• One top five, three top 10s
• Average finish of 6.7
• Average Running Position of 9.0, third-best
• Driver Rating of 106.2, third-best
• 8 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 118.552 mph, fifth-fastest
• 234 Laps in the Top 15 (86.7%), fifth-most
• 82 Quality Passes, eighth-most
Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont/National Guard Patriot Academy Chevrolet)
• Four wins, six top fives, eight top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 13.4
• Average Running Position of 12.2, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 97.4, seventh-best
• 17 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• 226 Laps in the Top 15 (62.4%), seventh-most
• 77 Quality Passes, 12th-most
Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M's Toyota)
• One win, one top five, three top 10s
• Average finish of 12.5
• Average Running Position of 15.7, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 100.0, fourth-best
• 25 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 118.463 mph, sixth-fastest
• 202 Laps in the Top 15 (55.8%), 10th-most
• 91 Quality Passes, third-most
Marcos Ambrose (No. 47 Kingsford/Clorox/Bush's Baked Beans Toyota)
• One top five, one top 10
• Average finish of 3.0
• Driver Rating of 94.5, ninth-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 118.395 mph, eighth-fastest
Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
• Two top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 21.4
• Average Running Position of 16.4, 12th-best
• Driver Rating of 96.4, eighth-best
• 28 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• 236 Laps in the Top 15 (65.2%), fourth-most
• 88 Quality Passes, fourth-most
Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
• One win, two top fives, five top 10s
• Average finish of 11.3
• Average Running Position of 11.6, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 98.4, fifth-best
• 5 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 118.359 mph, 10th-fastest
• 285 Laps in the Top 15 (78.7%), third-most
• 85 Quality Passes, sixth-most
Robby Gordon (No. 7 Red Stag/Kid Rock Toyota)
• One win, seven top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 10.6
• Driver Rating of 94.2, 10th-best
• 11 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• 196 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 118.563 mph, fourth-fastest
• 83 Quality Passes, seventh-most
WATKINS GLEN HIGHLIGHTS
• After several events were held on the streets of Watkins Glen, a permanent 2.3-mile facility was opened in 1956.
• The race winner has started first in nine
of 26 races, including last season when
Kyle Busch won from the pole (he started
first based on owner points – qualifying
was canceled due to inclement weather).
• Mark Martin leads all drivers with wins
from the pole with three in a row between
1993 and 1995.
• 17 of the 26 race winners have started
from a top-five starting position.
• 19 of 26 races at Watkins Glen have
been won from a top-10 starting position.
• The deepest in the field that a Watkins
Glen race winner has started was 18th by
Steve Park in 2000.
• 16 different drivers have won races, led by Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart, with four each.
• Jeff Gordon set the all-time NASCAR Sprint Cup record for road-course victories with his victory in 2001, his seventh on a road course. He has since won two more (both at Infineon Raceway), for a career total of nine.
• Three active drivers with more than one start have an average finish in the top 10: Denny Hamlin (6.7 in three starts), Mark Martin (6.9 in 19 starts) and Tony Stewart (5.7 in 10 starts).
• Michael Waltrip is the active leader in starts, with 22. Waltrip will not this race this weekend, instead giving his seat in the No. 55 NAPA Auto Parts Toyota to Patrick Carpentier. Carpentier has finishes of 22nd and 20th in his two previous Watkins Glen races.
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