using horsepower-reducing carburetor restrictors. The plates are used exclusively at Daytona and Talladega.
As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. My top twenty-five list utilizes an exclusive formula I’ve developed over many years of analyzing races. It factors in drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll find themselves moving up the list.
TOP TWENTY-FIVE
1)
2Kurt Busch
2)18Kyle Busch
3)11Denny Hamlin
4)31Jeff Burton
5)17Matt Kenseth
6)14Tony Stewart
7)99Carl Edwards
8)24Jeff Gordon
9)48Jimmie Johnson
10)9Kasey Kahne
11)5Mark Martin
12)33Clint Bowyer
13)16Greg Biffle
14)29Kevin Harvick
15)6David Ragan
16)47Marcos Ambrose
17)39Ryan Newman
18)19Elliott Sadler
19)88Dale Earnhardt Jr.
20)20Joey Logano
21)43A.J. Allmendinger
22)1Jamie McMurray
23)12Brad Keselowski
24)83Brian Vickers
25)56Martin Truex Jr.
SELECTED DRIVER STATS
Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
• Nine top fives, 10 top 10s
• Average finish of 17.2
• Average Running Position of 14.8, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 92.5, fifth-best
• 37 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 185.074 mph, 13th-fastest
• 1,148 Laps in the Top 15 (65.2%), sixth-most
• 1,143 Quality Passes, sixth-most
Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M's Toyota)
• One win, four top fives, four top 10s
• Average finish of 18.0
• Average Running Position of 10.9, second-best
• Driver Rating of 101.0, second-best
• Series-high 1,363 Laps in the Top 15 (77.4%)
• 1,181 Quality Passes, fifth-most
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
• One top five, one top 10
• Average finish of 23.8
• Average Running Position of 17.0, 13th-best
• Driver Rating of 83.2, 11th-best
• 46 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
• One win, six top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 17.8
• Average Running Position of 15.4, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 83.5, 10th-best
• 38 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• Series-high 1,987 Green Flag Passes
• Average Green Flag Speed of 185.228 mph, sixth-fastest
• 1,004 Laps in the Top 15 (57.0%), 11th-most
• 1,195 Quality Passes, fourth-most
Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
• One win, three top fives, nine top 10s
• Average finish of 17.9
• Average Running Position of 13.5, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 96.1, third-best
• 50 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 185.300 mph, second-fastest
• 1,279 Laps in the Top 15 (72.6%), third-most
• Series-high 1,267 Quality Passes
Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
• Three wins, seven top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 16.5
• Average Running Position of 11.6, third-best
• Series-best Driver Rating of 108.2
• 51 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 185.266 mph, fifth-fastest
• 1,279 Laps in the Top 15 (72.6%), third-most
Carl Edwards (No. 99 Scotts Turf Builder Ford)
• Three top fives, three top 10s
• Average finish of 19.7
• Average Running Position of 16.3, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 83.1, 12th-best
• 1,871 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 185.281 mph, fourth-fastest
• 1,043 Laps in the Top 15 (59.2%), eighth-most
• 1,246 Quality Passes, second-most
Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• Six wins, 11 top fives, 17 top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 15.5
• Average Running Position of 12.4, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 91.9, sixth-best
• 36 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 185.096 mph, 11th-fastest
• 1,180 Laps in the Top 15 (67.0%), fifth-most
• 1,076 Quality Passes, eighth-most
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet)
• One win, six top fives, nine top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 14.2
• Series-best Average Running Position of 10.4
• Driver Rating of 94.3, fourth-best
• 1,659 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 185.321 mph
• 1,328 Laps in the Top 15 (75.4%), second-most
• 1,237 Quality Passes, third-most
Mark Martin (No. 5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
• Nine top fives, 17 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 18.1
• Driver Rating of 81.8, 13th-best
• 1,015 Laps in the Top 15 (57.6%), 10th-most
• 992 Quality Passes, 11th-most
Clint Bowyer (No. 33 Cheerios Chevrolet)
• One top five, five top 10s
• Average finish of 13.4
• Average Running Position of 16.7, 12th-best
• Driver Rating of 84.6, ninth-best
Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
• One win, two top fives, three top 10s
• Average finish of 20.9
• Average Running Position of 16.4, 11th-best
• Driver Rating of 85.9, eighth-best
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevrolet)
• Two wins, six top fives, 11 top 10s
• Average finish of 15.6
• Average Running Position of 15.3, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 87.3, seventh-best
• 49 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 185.139 mph, eighth-fastest
• 1,096 Laps in the Top 15 (62.2%), seventh-most
• 1,048 Quality Passes, 10th-most
DAYTONA HIGHLIGHTS
• Groundbreaking for Daytona International Speedway was on November 25, 1957.
• Lee Petty won the inaugural Daytona 500 on Feb. 22, 1959.
• Fireball Roberts won the first 400-mile race at Daytona, in 1963.
• Richard Petty leads all drivers in victories at Daytona with 10, earning his 200th career race on July 4, 1984 at Daytona.
• Six drivers made 10 or more attempts before their first Daytona 500 victory: Dale Earnhardt (19), Buddy Baker (18), Darrell Waltrip (16), Bobby Allison (14), Michael Waltrip (14) and Sterling Marlin 12). Last year’s winner, Matt Kenseth, won it in his 10th try.
• Mark Martin (25) leads active drivers
without a victory. He will start on the pole
for this year’s race.
• Six drivers posted their career-first
victory with a win in the Daytona 500:
Tiny Lund (1963), Mario Andretti (1967),
Pete Hamilton (1970), Derrike Cope (1990),
Sterling Marlin (1994) and Michael Waltrip
(2001).
• Only eight drivers have won the Daytona
500 more than once: Richard Petty
(seven), Cale Yarborough (four), Bobby
Allison (three), Dale Jarrett (three), Jeff
Gordon (three), Bill Elliott (two), Sterling
Marlin (two) and Michael Waltrip (two).
• Kevin Harvick’s 0.020-second margin of victory over Mark Martin in the 2007 Daytona 500 is the ninth-closest overall since the advent of electronic timing in 1993, and the closest in a Daytona 500.
• 26 of the 51 Daytona 500s have been won from a top-five starting position.
• Matt Kenseth won the Daytona 500 from the 39th starting position last year, the deepest a race winner has started.
• Nine have been won from the pole, and 15 have been won from the front row.
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